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Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Annie Duke, renowned—and controversial—poker player, writes about applying poker thinking to life. Specifically, separating outcomes from expected value, and making choices with incomplete information. If you've played a lot of poker—or, traded in financial markets—there's not too much surprising here.

In terms of applicable value, the lesson is fairly short, and could have been a blog post. Seek contrarian opinions and evidence against your biases. Don't blame negative outcomes on bad luck or necessarily bad decision making: the outcome only has a loose connection to the quality of the decision. Review decisions with other smart, experienced people.


These are entirely subjective, and roughly try to capture my personal enjoyment and usefulness, and how likely I'd recommend it to others. Don't read too much into this unless you love my judgement. Rough guidelines:

A: Top quartile. Changed the way I think about something.

B: Worthwhile. I took away something useful.

C: Didn't hit, wouldn't directly recommend. Likely won't revisit.

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